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| Most White Evangelicals Supported Trump |
In this post I look at the division between evangelical groups in terms of the 2020 US election and who might have influence over the groups in terms of efforts to promote unity. This assessment is somewhat difficult given limitations in available data but I hope it is better to have some data than rely on arguments offering opinions about what the future looks like for US evangelicalism
Data from Gallup document the strong support for Trump in the 2020 election.
Gallup reports two sets of data for each candidate to estimate what percentage of White evangelicals voted for each candidate. Supporting Trump were 81% or 76% and for Biden, 18% or 24%. If we average the two numbers we get an estimate of 79% for Trump and 21% for Biden.
In the aftermath of the election, which includes efforts to challenge the votes, the assault on the capitol, and the second impeachment, politicians and religious leaders have voiced their opinions about Trump, the election results, the assault on capitol, and the second impeachment.
When it comes to religious leaders, I wanted to see who might have a great deal of influence to bring Christians together. Based on Pew Data I reported previously, most of the representatives and senators identify as Christian, which is useful information but they do not have the same role as a prominent religious leader. so, I looked at the followers of some of the names of evangelicals who get attention from the press.
The data supporting evangelical leadership
The overwhelming Christian-political leader is Franklin Graham who has over 9,500,000 followers on Facebook (FB) and over 2,300 000 followers on Twitter. For the record, Pat Robertson's 700 Club has a strong following with some 2.7 million on FB. These numbers give Graham a powerful voice to define what it means to be an evangelical.
The closest evangelical leader to Graham is Rick Warren; however, when I looked at his Facebook page and twitter feed, there is not much involvement in politics like you find on Graham's posts and tweets. Warren has influence but does not appear to spend it on political influence.
There are of course outspoken evangelicals who did not support Trump. I looked up Russell Moore (FB 38+K, Twitter 165+K) and Ed Stetzer (FB 43+K, Twitter 246+K) who get some press for their lack of support for Trump and find their sphere of influence insignificant compared to Graham. Multiple leaders can certainly have influence but they will have a hard time influencing the millions who follow Graham or defining evangelicalism in a different manner.
The future of White evangelicalism and politics
At this point in time, the future of White US evangelicalism and politics rests primarily with the leadership of Franklin Graham. His condemnation of the second impeachment on January 14, 2021 and his review of the good things president Trump has done for the country loudly proclaim his moral-political stance. Following is his opening statement.
Shame, shame on the ten Republicans who joined with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in impeaching President Trump yesterday. After all that he has done for our country, you would turn your back and betray him so quickly? We have never had a president like him in my lifetime.
If you take the time to read what Graham appreciates about the Trump years, you will have a fairly accurate view of what lies ahead for the large segment of evangelicals who follow his leadership. Graham published his agenda a year ago.
In the above referenced outrage over the impeachment, Franklin Graham signaled he is not going to be one who turns his back on president Trump like the 10 Republicans who voted for impeachment.
Unless some evangelical leader rises to have more influence than Rev. Franklin Graham, he remains the leader. And there is no change in what politically active evangelicals want to happen in the years ahead. With gains in the House of Representatives, half of all US senators, and a conservative Supreme Court, they are in a strong position to influence what happens in America including what evangelicals do with their beliefs.
Of course, the other evangelicals named and a lot of others, will influence their followers but when it comes to White US evangelicalism and politics it looks like a Graham-Evangelical-Republican Agenda for the near future. Graham is the go-to person when media sources want to quote an evangelical view.
Leadership can change of course. Leaders come and go. Obviously, promoting an alternative view of evangelicalism and what the future holds will require a voice that speaks for the millions of Americans who follow Graham and his agenda. Currently, the alternative voices split the small percentage of people who do not follow Graham's vision.
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